Arcade could blight the whole district

Last week Ian Davison reminded us that the argument for Clarendon Arcade is based on retail forecasts written in 2009. It is striking that Wilson Bowden offers no new assessment with its recent application - presumably because an up-date would indeed destroy their credibility.

During recent years there has been much news and debate about first the banking crisis and then government debt. But the key consideration for retailing is household debt. Over the last two decades personal debt has almost doubled: on average every household in the country now owes £16,000 and that is excluding mortgages. This puts huge pressure on households to curb their spending and, if possible, to pay back some of that debt.

But that is not all. Cost of living is running ahead of wages and most people are gradually getting more hard up. Interest rates are currently at an historic low. This has been a lifeline for mortgage holders but rates can only rise in years to come. Pensions are being severely squeezed in the public sector. At the same time private pension pots have declined with a falling stock market. Contributions will have to rise sharply, simply to keep up.

There is a tendency to believe in recession as a dip, a passing event, but this ignores the extreme situation now in play. Across the developed world mature economies are stagnating, with both Europe and the USA mired in debt, while Japan is still unable to move on from lost decades.